Richard Male has built a career out of guiding nonprofits through tumultuous times.

Male founded and helped organize the Community Resource Center, the Colorado Nonprofit Association and Community Shares. But in his four decades in the sector, the veteran has never witnessed such precarious conditions for local groups and their ability to support the millions they serve. He spoke with the Rocky Mountain News about the outlook.

What fallout are you predicting?

I'm expecting at least 20 percent of nonprofits to go out of business. Those with a strong base of donations from individuals are in a much better place because many people will continue to give and have always supplied the vast majority - about 85 percent - of charitable funds. Still, donors have cautioned charities they can't count on 2008 giving levels in 2009.

Foundations could cut their grants by a third, while corporations and government will also have to cut back.

What can nonprofits do to get by with less?

Develop contingency plans. It's critical they develop alternative budgets that anticipate a drop of 20 percent, 40 percent, or even 60 percent in their annual revenue.

It might be time for some nonprofits to look at mergers or at least affiliating with another organization to share costs. They should think about doing everything from sharing rental space with another group to sharing administrative staff and more.

Funders will be throwing support behind nonprofits focused on helping families in need. But when considering requests for money, funders are also likely to dole out limited funds to nonprofits that put aside personal egos and work together.

What advice do you have for nonprofit leaders?

Different skills are required in times of economic uncertainty. People will look to executives for firm and decisive guidance. This is the time to reach out to volunteers, staff, board members and donors - instead of withdrawing.

Even if your employees feel fortunate to be employed, they will likely be anxious or overwhelmed. A business-as-usual approach ignores those stresses, taking a toll on productivity at a time when organizations need peak performance.

Which nonprofits will fare best?

Well-known and well-respected nonprofits, especially those serving the less fortunate, are much more likely to maintain their current funding levels.

You need to be visible in the community - with the wealthy, with foundations and corporations, and with local government and business leaders. Make sure local churches know of your work. Make sure you send people to address the Rotary or other service clubs.

Any reasons to be optimistic?

Nonprofits should look at new federal funding opportunities with the economic stimulus money and the new Obama administration. Look at the expansion of voluntary and community service programs, job training and employment programs and other forms of investment designed to get the economy going.

This isn't the time for charities to panic, but to be more realistic.