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Some crime reports just didn't add up
Revised estimates of population help neighborhoods
Published March 20, 2007 at midnight
Some fast-growing Denver neighborhoods have a significantly lower crime rate than reported last month in the city's annual crime report.
Using revised population estimates, crime in Gateway/Green Valley Ranch in the northeast corner of the city ranked 48th among the city's 79 neighborhoods - not 14th, as reported last month.
A similar drop was calculated for Lowry Field, where crime ranks 52nd among the city's neighborhoods, not 13th, according to a draft statement obtained by the Rocky Mountain News on Monday.
The re-calculation of crime rates was prompted by City Council President Michael Hancock, who says he was disturbed that the city's annual report of neighborhood crime statistics showed crime spiking in Green Valley Ranch.
Serious crime was down 10 percent citywide last year. The calculation of that decrease is not affected by the use of revised population figures.
Hancock, who lives in Gateway/Green Valley Ranch, said he believed that crime was a problem, but nothing close to what the initial figures showed.
His issue: the city was using population statistics from the 2000 census, which he said did not reflect the rapid population growth in the neighborhood. If that growth was figured in, crime per 1,000 residents would decrease.
Hancock said he first protested the use of the old census data in 2003 but that his complaints fell on deaf ears.
Then this year, he approached Jeremy Bronson, Mayor John Hickenlooper's liaison with the police department, and asked for a change.
"Bronson kick-started this," Hancock said.
"Crime statistics have such a local impact that we have to get them right," Hancock said.
"I think they (Green Valley residents) live in a safer community than what has been portrayed," he added.
Denver's Safety Office of Policy Analysis revised the rates using 2005 population projections by the Denver Regional Council of Governments for the two neighborhoods.
Denver will start using the more recent population estimates across the city next year, the draft said. "Using the DRCOG neighborhood data during the years when census data has grown older will provide a more accurate picture of population within the city," the SOPA statement to Hancock said.
The statement was sent to Hancock on Monday. As of late Monday, the city had not released a final report. There is some question whether the DRCOG estimates for 2005 or 2006 should be used.
Either way, the crime rates in the two neighborhoods would be significantly lower than what was stated last month.
The overall city crime rate is 79 serious crimes per 1,000 citizens. Green Valley's new rate is 59 per 1,000 and Lowry's rate is 56, both significantly below the average.
Bronson said that rankings for all of the city's neighborhoods will be on the SOPA Web site, www.denvergov.org/sopa, later this week, but that he expected no more major changes in ranking.
Using updated population figures in determining crime rates cuts both ways, Hancock said.
Some neighborhoods that are losing population could see their crime rates increase next year.
kilzerl@RockyMountainNews.com or 303-954-2644
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