What, when and why.

What did Joe Nacchio actually know about Qwest's economic prospects during the first five months of 2001?

When did he learn that tumultuous times were ahead for the telecommunications giant, which up until that time had artificially maintained a relatively decent stock price level by achieving its revenue targets through one-time sales and trades of fiber-optic network capacity with other telecoms?

And why did he systematically sell off more than $100 million worth of the company's stock during that period of time, including $30 million in the last week of April 2001 alone?

Jurors' answers to those three questions will determine their verdict in the insider trading trial of the embattled former Qwest CEO.

What did he know and when?

Federal prosecutors will emphasize that in December 2000, Nacchio was told by Qwest's then-chief operating officer that Qwest's revenue projections were hopelessly optimistic, that in February 2001 an audit committee cautioned management to disclose to investors that Qwest had been achieving its financial targets only through hit-or-miss sales or swaps of communications capacity, an economic house of cards.

The defense will counter that Nacchio had good reason to believe that Qwest was on a firm financial footing, that he knew what others in the company did not, that the company was on the verge of landing a lucrative top-secret government contract to create a private fiber-optic network for clandestine federal agencies.

The "classified information" defense gave rise to closed-door hearings.

During those hearings, federal District Court Judge Edward Nottingham ruled on what classified information could be relevant to Nacchio's defense under the Classified Information Procedures Act.

But the ultimate question is the why.

The government's position is that Nacchio was dumping Qwest stock because he knew that the stock price would tumble, having just temporarily propped up stock value by making rosy public pronouncements of Qwest's financial stability.

Nacchio's lawyers will seek to show that the stock selloffs were part of a prearranged stock sale diversification schedule or were forced on Nacchio by the Qwest board of directors.

But the most critical period of time for both sides is the week following the release of Qwest's first-quarter results on April 24, 2001, and Nacchio's news release predicting the company's continued revenue growth within a weakening telecommunications industry.

Despite what he was saying publicly, Nacchio then sold off $30 million in Qwest stock during the following week, following that up with sales of another $22 million in May.

How well prosecutors develop evidence about that period of time, and how well the defense explains those late-April and May stock sales, is what will ultimately decide Nacchio's fate.

Scott Robinson is a Denver trial lawyer specializing in personal injury and criminal defense.