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Holtz: Tips might aid safety in pool
Published March 14, 2007 at midnight
All right, class. Listen up.
Today's lesson in Office Pool 101 has commenced.
You are looking at your NCAA Tournament bracket. You're trying to decipher among teams you have never seen. Some of these schools, you don't even know their home state. Many of them, you can't name a player.
Besides, if you can name all the starters on Central Connecticut State off the top of your head, you're either an alum or in serious need of a life.
But have no fear. We're here to help.
Picking the NCAA field is part art, part science and an enormous part guesswork.
True story: I once worked at a newspaper in Cincinnati. When the office pool came out, a 75-year-old woman who worked in advertising walked into the sports department and asked me to write down all the mascots of the schools.
This woman, who didn't know a free throw from a free pizza, picked the teams through the bracket based on what would happen if the mascots got in a fight. If it was Tigers, say, against Bulldogs, she would pick the Tigers.
She won the pool.
The point is, anyone who thinks he has this thing down has delusions of grandeur.
So here's what you do, and here's what you don't do:
Don't overthink. If you start analyzing the nuances - this team really is good on backdoor cuts, this team has a deep bench, stuff like that - you're setting yourself up for paralysis by overanalysis.
Big-name coaches are big-name for a reason. Seventeen coaches in this year's field have coached teams to Final Fours. Nine have won it all. This isn't coincidence. Everything else being equal, go with the more accomplished coach.
Don't get caught up in the seeds in first-round games unless teams facing each other are nine or more numbers apart. A No. 16 beating a No. 1 never has happened. A 15 beating a 2 is like seeing Halley's Comet. Same with a 14 over a 3. A 13 only occasionally beats a 4. But a 12 has beaten a 5 six years running. And there's virtually no difference in the 6-11, 7-10 and 8-9 games.
Experienced point-guard play is paramount. Those are the guys with the ball in their hands, the jump-starters of the whole engine.
While the game is getting younger all the time, go with seasoned guys in the backcourt.
High-end talent can put a team over the top. Think Syracuse wins it all a few years back without Carmelo Anthony? With so many of these teams so evenly matched, a difference-maker like Texas' Kevin Durant or Ohio State's Greg Oden can give a team that ever-so-slight edge to move on.
All that being said, this advice is being disseminated by a guy who never has picked all Final Four teams correctly, who routinely has forecast teams to go deep into the bracket only to see them collapse early. My bracket has seen the trash compactor as often as yours.
But follow these do's and don'ts, and you may not look like as big a fool as the guy or gal at the next cubicle.
My bracket has four teams seeded worse than No. 4 making the Sweet 16 - No. 7 Nevada-Las Vegas in the Midwest, No. 6 Louisville in the South, and No. 13 Holy Cross and No. 10 Gonzaga in the West.
My Final Four is Florida, Kansas, Texas and Ohio State - three No. 1 seeds, with the Longhorns a No. 4. Why Texas? Because of Durant. No one player can impact a game like him. I've got Florida over Texas in the title game.
Just don't take this stuff to the bank. Or to Vegas.
NCAA on CBS
Broadcasts begin at 10 a.m. and 5 p.m. and conclude after the second and fourth games. Times are approximate, and the network may join other games in progress.
Thursday
10:25 a.m.: Boston College vs. Texas Tech.
1 p.m.: Texas A&M vs. Penn
5:25 p.m.: UCLA vs. Weber St.
7:45 p.m.: Indiana vs. Gonzaga
Promised land
More than one-quarter of the coaches in the 65-team NCAA Tournament field - 17 - have guided at least one team to the Final Four. Nine in this year's field have won national titles.
MIDWEST REGIONAL Coach, school (previous Final Four school) FFs
*Lute Olson, Arizona (Iowa) 5
*Billy Donovan, Florida 2
*Gary Williams, Maryland 2
Paul Hewitt, Georgia Tech 1
Lon Kruger, UNLV (Florida) 1
WEST REGIONAL Coach, school (previous Final Four school) FFs
*Mike Krzyzewski, Duke 10
Ben Howland, UCLA 1
Kelvin Sampson, Indiana (Oklahoma) 1
*Tubby Smith, Kentucky 1
Bruce Weber, Illinois 1
EAST REGIONAL Coach, school (previous Final Four school) FFs
*Bob Knight, Texas Tech (Indiana) 5
*Roy Williams, North Carolina (Kansas) 5
*Tom Izzo, Michigan State 4
Rick Barnes, Texas 1
Tom Crean, Marquette 1
SOUTH REGIONAL Coach, school (previous Final Four school) FFs
*Rick Pitino, Louisville (Kentucky, Providence) 5
John Calipari, Memphis (Massachusetts) 1* Has Won At Least One National Title.
holtzr@RockyMountainNews.com. Want to express your opinion on the NCAA Tournament or get some tips for your bracket? Chat live with Randy Holtz at 11 a.m. today on RockyTalk Live at RockyMountainNews.com
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