I got 52. Coulda been worse.

My annual attempt to climb into the NCAA Tournament selection committee's collective mind hit some inevitable snags along the way, but considering my choices were published Feb. 26, back before the very first of the conference tournaments began, I'll take 52. That's one for each of the cards in the deck, and this thing's always a gamble, anyway.

But don't ever ask me to make contributions to the general funds of the universities of Vermont, Akron or Austin Peay. Those are the three schools I picked in one-bid conferences that lost in the final seconds by a single point in their tournament title games.

Bad, bad Catamounts. Zips, you're a bunch of zeroes. The Governors ought to be impeached.

Those three hold onto their late leads in those games, and I'm stylin' with 55 correct, just like last year. And if Air Force doesn't slam headfirst into a wall the past two weeks, that's 56, my best total since way back in 1991, when all my hair was still a nice, rich brown.

Then there are the Arkansas Razorbacks. Who saw their big Southeastern Conference tournament run coming? No one when my picks came out, that's for sure.

What we're seeing here is a college-hoops landscape where an awful lot of bubble teams in an awful lot of outposts look an awful lot alike.

I have known all along the selection committee's job was thankless and impossible, an opinion driven home even more by my one day as a faux committee member during a mock selection exercise at NCAA headquarters in Indianapolis a month ago.

But this year clearly was the committee's toughest ever. Over the past two weeks, locks moved down to the bubble and then out completely.

No-hopers moved up. Teams that looked to be the best in the lower-level leagues stumbled. That stuff always happens to an extent, but no year has been like this year.

Princeton athletic director Gary Walters, a nice guy with the thankless task of chairing the selection committee, pointed out Sunday there were 104 Division I teams this season with 20 wins. Last year, there were 78.

And these guys have all the results in hand when making their decisions. I'm projecting how bubble teams in big-time conferences will perform down the stretch, always a dicey endeavor. I'm also projecting conference tournament winners in conferences whose teams never see a television camera until the tourney final.

So cut me some slack, people. This is hard.

Like I said, it coulda been worse. A lot worse. I'll take 52.

Holtz's track record

Year Right Wrong

1986 48 16

1987 55 9

1988 57 7

1989 53 11

1990 56 8

1991 56 8

1992 50 14

1993 45 19

1994 47 17

1995 52 12

1996 49 15

1997 49 15

1998 53 11

1999 48 16

2000 47 17

2001 53 11

2002 48 16

2003 53 11

2004 49 15

2005 45 19

2006 55 9

2007 52 12

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