LAS VEGAS - In or out? Dancin' or watchin'?

Sitting squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble, the Air Force Falcons face maybe the most important basketball game in the academy's history this afternoon when they go up against Wyoming in the first round of the Mountain West Conference men's tournament.

Win, NCAA bracketologists feel, and the cadets will cap their remarkable season with their third NCAA appearance in four seasons.

Lose, those same experts think, and March Madness will turn into March Sadness, the bummed-out Falcons' noses pressed against the window while the party rages on.

Fourth-seeded AFA and No. 5 Wyoming tip off at 3:30 p.m. MST in the second of four men's quarterfinal games at the Thomas & Mack Center.

Also trying to advance to the semifinals Friday will be Colorado State, the sixth-seeded Rams facing No. 3 San Diego State at 9:30 p.m. All four of the games today, starting at 1 p.m., will be televised by the mtn.

The Falcons wouldn't be in this predicament if they hadn't hit a wall the past couple of weeks. After a 23-4 start that had tournament-field prognosticators projecting Air Force as high as a No. 5 seed, the Falcons have lost three consecutive games, including an embarrassing setback at eternally rebuilding Texas Christian.

The thinking is, a fourth consecutive loss going into Selection Sunday could be curtains for a team that spent much of the season in the national polls. How a team plays down the stretch of the regular season and in its conference tournament are important factors when the selection committee tries to decipher among bubble teams for the final at-large berths.

Air Force squeezed into the NCAA field in 2004 and last season despite first-round losses in the conference tournament. This team, with a loss today, might not be so lucky.

Coach Jeff Bzdelik gave the players four days off after their regular-season finale, a home loss to Brigham Young on Feb. 27, in hopes of flushing the bad vibes out of their minds.

"For whatever reason, our shot selection and discipline on the offensive end have been questionable at times, and that falls on me," Bzdelik said. "I've allowed my seniors at times to have a little too much freedom, and we're working on that."

The senior-laden Falcons, led by the veteran quartet of Nick Welch, Jacob Burtschi, Dan Nwaelele and Matt McCraw, will face a Wyoming team they pummeled 88-43 at Clune Arena on Feb. 3.

But that Cowboys team was playing without suspended guards Brandon Ewing and Brad Jones. The backcourt pair missed the game because of their roles in a fight with New Mexico, but they're back now and figure to give the Falcons all they can handle.

San Diego State is another team desperately needing a win or two in Vegas this week. At 21-9, the upwardly mobile Aztecs need to beef up their season résumé to grab an NCAA at-large bid.

BYU and Nevada-Las Vegas, meanwhile, are considered by most to be NCAA locks regardless of how they play this week. But the Cougars and Rebels would love to dispense with the suspense by winning the tournament and the accompanying automatic berth.

UNLV will have a big home-court advantage, as Thomas & Mack will be filled with red-clad Rebels fans when the home team takes the court.

"Anybody that thinks it isn't a big advantage for Vegas doesn't know the situation," San Diego State coach Steve Fisher said. "But I was one of the coaches who approved the move (from Denver back to the tournament's original home), so I can't complain about it. As coaches, we just thought playing it in Vegas would give us the most sizzle and excitement."

The semifinals Friday, which begin at 7 p.m., will be televised by CSTV. The title game Saturday will tip off at 5 p.m. on Versus.

holtzr@RockyMountainNews.com