Dirk is down.

His scoring average, that is. On the surface, that might not seem an ideal scenario for a player to hoist the Most Valuable Player trophy.

But look at the other numbers. And only one conclusion can be reached.

Dirk is destined.

When the votes are counted, count on Dallas forward Dirk Nowitzki being named the MVP.

It starts with the Mavericks' record. At 49-9, they are on pace to go 69-13.

In NBA history, 11 teams have won 65 or more games. Nine had their top player rewarded with the MVP award.

Nowitzki's scoring average is down from 26.6 last season to 25.0. But that might be helping his cause.

Nowitzki is being seen as more of a team player. His game is being seen as having matured in other areas.

"(Houston guard Tracy McGrady) said I should be the MVP, and that, obviously, made me feel great with all the work I've put in," Nowitzki said. "When I first got in the league, I was just a spot-up shooter. I wanted to be more of an all-around player. There's a lot of things that I worked on over the years."

It has showed. Nowitzki has increased his assists average from 2.8 to 3.4 and his rebounding from 9.0 to 9.4.

He's even shooting better. His field-goal percentage has increased from 48.0 to 50.4 and free-throw percentage from 90.1 to 90.8.

Nowitzki's primary competition is two-time winner Steve Nash, averaging 18.9 points and 11.8 assists. But there might be voters who deem the Phoenix guard not worthy of joining Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird as the only players to have won three straight MVPs, and the Suns (44-14) have fallen five games behind the Mavericks in the race for the league's best record.

"I think (Nowitzki) wins the MVP because his team is the best in basketball and he's the best player on the team," Nuggets coach George Karl said. "He's done a great job of getting out of Josh Howard's way and getting out of Jason Terry's way and just letting the team operate. . . . We've seen guys who don't know how to get out of the way, but Dirk's been a rock for his team."

There is precedent for a player winning his first MVP in a season in which his scoring average dropped, although it's hardly common. Of the 23 nonrookie first-time winners, only Philadelphia's Julius Erving in 1980-81, Chicago's Michael Jordan in 1987-88 and San Antonio's David Robinson in 1994-95 won when their averages fell.

But all three were on teams that improved their records. And, barring a major drop-off, that figures to be the case with the Mavericks, who went 60-22 last season.

Jordan won four of his five MVPs when his scoring average fell from the previous season. But he became a more savvy team player, something Karl is seeing in Nowitzki.

"If I get (the MVP), that's great, obviously," Nowitzki said. "In 20 years, looking back on my career, it would be wonderful to say that I was MVP one year. But that's not really something right now I'm thinking about. Right now, we're so close to winning a championship, that's really the only thing on my mind."

If Nowitzki wants some good news, 10 of the 11 teams to have won 65 or more games won the crown, with it happening eight of the nine times the MVP came off such a team.

What's the point?

Word is spreading around the league about the Nuggets seeking a point guard this summer. Memphis guard Chucky Atkins, who will be a free agent, has been quick to throw up his hand and express interest.

"At this point in time, it'd definitely be a good spot for me," Atkins said of the Nuggets.

Nevertheless, it remains to be seen what the Nuggets might be willing to spend if they go the free-agent route. The Nuggets are in jeopardy next season of going deep into the luxury tax.

The Nuggets might prefer to go the trade route in trying to beef up their point-guard situation. Allen Iverson is the only point under contract for next season, and it's still not clear if that will be his long-term position in Denver.

The only other point on the roster is Steve Blake, who will become a free agent. The Nuggets could look to re-sign him or eye other free agents.

At the top of the free-agent list is Detroit's Chauncey Billups, who figures to opt out of his contract but would be out of Denver's price range. Next up is Milwaukee's Mo Williams, but he also might be too pricey for the Nuggets, who will have the midlevel exception (about $6 million) and biannual exception ($1.83 million).

The list moves on to Earl Boykins, who is expected to opt out of his contract but won't return to Denver, Smush Parker and Atkins. Then there's Keyon Dooling, Jannero Pargo and combo guard Ronald Murray, who all have player options.

Don't forget ancient Gary Payton, who turns 39 in July. Would Payton, who already has a title ring, be willing to play a final season for a low salary under Karl, his former coach?

After that, there's not much available better than Blake. The list includes Keith McLeod, Jason Hart, Jeff McInnis and Jacque Vaughn.

Short jumpers

• Moving to the bench could cost Blake a $250,000 contract bonus he would earn for averaging 26 minutes. Blake, at 24.6 minutes, needs to average 29 in the final 26 games to reach it. Blake averaged 36.8 minutes when he started 18 straight games, but he has managed just 26 in four games since going to the bench. "It'd be nice to get it," he said. "As we get closer to the end of the season, then I'll start thinking about it."

• Bob Knight might be the winningest men's college coach, but that success hasn't filtered down to the pros. Three of Knight's former Indiana players are NBA coaches, and they combine for a career winning percentage of .404. New York's Isiah Thomas is 157-148, Atlanta's Mike Woodson 61-161 and Minnesota's Randy Wittman is 68-113. Throw in former coaches Quinn Buckner (13-69) and Butch Carter (73-92), and the NBA winning percentage of Knight school graduates plummets to .390.

Wins usually equal MVP

Of the 11 teams that have won 65 games or more, the Most Valuable Player has come from nine:

Season Team W-L Most Valuable Player

1966-67 Philadelphia 68-13 Wilt Chamberlain

1970-71 Milwaukee 66-16 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

1971-72 L.A. Lakers 69-13 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (Milwaukee)

1972-73 Boston 68-14 Dave Cowens

1982-83 Philadelphia 65-17 Moses Malone

1985-86 Boston 67-15 Larry Bird

1986-87 L.A. Lakers 65-17 Magic Johnson

1991-92 Chicago 67-15 Michael Jordan

1995-96 Chicago 72-10 Michael Jordan

1996-97 Chicago 69-13 Karl Malone (Utah)

1999-2000 L.A. Lakers 67-15 Shaquille O'NealAll Of The Teams Won Nba Titles Except Boston In 1972-73, When New York Was The Champion.

tomassonc@RockyMountainNews.com

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