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Don't sleep on these guys
Published August 21, 2007 at midnight
With fantasy drafts already underway though its best to wait until after this weekends games are complete its time to look at a few players that offer great value at their draft position.
Fantasy veterans know that the secret to great drafting is not simply selecting the best players available, but taking them no earlier than necessary. You may share my belief that Vincent Jackson is poised to have a breakout fantasy year. But youre hurting yourself and, worse yet, opening yourself up to ridicule from your opponents if you take him too early.
Jackson may rank among the Top 20 receivers by years end, but
hes typically valued closer to the 40th WR slot. Hes what
we in the "bidness" call a sleeper, because, of course, it can get very
tiring doing the research required to find these draft gems.
It is difficult to craft a championship team without nabbing at least
one sleeper. Last year, mid- to late-round selections of Drew Brees,
Frank Gore and Marques Colston, to name just three, made their owners
look like geniuses, and champions.
Your goal, therefore, is not just to draft the best player available at every pick, but to have the confidence and patience to wait on the guys you think are undervalued by your less-informed opponents.
So who are these unappreciated lads, you ask? Step right up for my Top 10 Sleeper Picks of 2007, broken down by position.
(Note: ADP means "average draft position," and indicates the pick at which the player is typically selected in standard 10-team leagues, according to several mock draft web sites. Compare this to their value in my "Top 100" rankings, where applicable.)
Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (ADP: 75; Top 100: 29). All I know is that he better think next time before he cheats on Carrie Underwood. And that if you project his 06 stats from 11 games to a full season, you get 4,223 yards and 26 TDs. That may be a tad optimistic, but its not out of the question in the Cowboys high-octane, pass-happy offense.
Jon Kitna, QB, Lions (ADP: 58; Top 100: 37). Dont drink the "10 wins" Kool-Aid Kitna is serving, but theres every reason to believe that he will prosper leading an explosive, pass-first offense in his second year under Mike Martzs direction. The addition of Calvin Johnson alongside Roy Williams gives him a dynamic WR corps that can score every time they touch the ball.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers (ADP: 61; Top 100: 36): Look for a breakout performance from the second-year pro, who came on strong late in 06. Yes, DeShaun Foster remains an obstacle, but he has proven to be pedestrian at best. Carolinas offense has been re-tooled to improve the rushing game, and the more-talented Williams should be the primary beneficiary.
Fred Taylor, RB, Jaguars (ADP: 90, Top 100: 56): One of the most underrated running backs of his generation, a healthy Taylor can still run with the best of them. Expect the Jags to reprise the powerful 1-2 punch of Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, and for the veteran to reclaim more of the TDs poached by the rookie in '06.
Reggie Brown, WR, Eagles (ADP: 59, Top 100: 47): Donovan McNabb's primary target is always a fantasy stud. Brown may not have the speed or natural skills of his predecessors, but he is a solid receiver that can't help but excel in this prolific offense.
Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers (ADP: 77, Top 100: 52): He should benefit the most from the continued maturation of Philip Rivers. Jackson proved to be a potent red-zone target in '06, and with Antonio Gates and LT drawing opposing defenses' attention, he should excel in his third season.
Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers (ADP: 97, Top 100: 72): You heard it here first: Holmes will out-perform Hines Ward this season. Hes a big-play receiver who will benefit from Ben Roethlisbergers big arm and a more wide-open offense. Ward will get his blue collar stats, but the second-year speedster will have some monster games.
Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys (ADP: 92, Top 100: 61): See Romo, Tony. Also, with Terry Glenn hobbled in the preseason, and the strong rapport Witten has developed with his quarterback, he is poised for a career season.
Steven Gostkowski, K, Patriots. (ADP: 159): With a solid rookie campaign behind him, and an explosive offensive attack giving him plenty of attempts, look for him to join the ranks of elite kickers.
Jaguars defense. (ADP: 123, Top 100: 99): Anchored by the best pair of defensive tackles in the game, solid linebackers and ball-hawking CB Rashean Mathis, one of the league's stingiest units in '06 is well-positioned to dominate this season. If the price of the Bears and Ravens is too rich, sit back and wait for this elite squad.
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