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What to make of market?
Some say fears excessive; others see a train wreck
Published August 11, 2007 at midnight
Once upon a time, a whipsaw was an actual tool - used by two people, sawing back and forth, with the goal of cutting a log in two.
Now it's just a verb describing the stock market. After another week of stomach-churning market turning, the Rocky Mountain News queried local investment professionals about this week that was.
Fears about subprime mortgages have infected all types of debt, jacking up interest rates on corporate bonds. That's led to the belief that we've reached the end of the leveraged buyout boom, in which firms float loads of debt to buy out companies. No buyers means no takeover premium for companies' stock, so equities can go in the toilet.
"We are seeing the re-pricing of risk from an attitude of 'anything goes' to more sober levels of risk-taking among banks, lenders, and Wall Street," said Andre Ratkai, president of Praxis Advisory Group. "There is no such thing as an 'orderly' bear market, and the path of high risk-taking to low almost always happens in abrupt and frightening fashion."
David A. Peterson of Peak Capital Investment Services says, "The market can't make up its mind over the subprime issues, with some of the so-called gurus thinking this is a major concern and others of the opinion that it's much ado about nothing. With strong corporate earnings, accelerating Gross Domestic Product, inflation under control and a solid employment picture, the latter opinion makes more sense to me."
For another view, we turn to Jeff Wilson of Wilson Advisory Group. "I believe we are witnessing a slow-motion train wreck," Wilson said. "In my heart of hearts, I believe that (leading Wall Street financiers) are afraid that if everyone knew what they know, investors would run to get off, leaving them holding the bag."
Surely, certain Wall Street figures have helped spook their colleagues. After investment bank Bear Stearns saw two of its hedge funds disintegrate, its CFO, Sam Molinaro, said the bond market "has been as bad as I've seen it in 22 years."
Numerous other Wall Street players who created, sold and owned new types of financial instruments backed by subprime mortgages now claim they can't tell how bad it can get.
"That's unacceptable," said Michael G. Willis, president and lead portfolio manager of the Giant 5 Funds in Colorado Springs. "The SEC needs to ban the use of leverage on Wall Street. The abuse of leverage has turned Wall Street into a trading casino."
Meanwhile, other money managers are trying to calm the waters for their clients.
Until now, "the real story has been the lack of volatility," said Thomas L. Coxhead, a senior vice president for RBC Dain Rauscher. "Prior to March 2007, the equity markets went 900-plus days without a 2 percent or greater down day, the longest since 1950. Corrections of 10 percent have averaged one a year since 1900, but we have not experienced a correction of that magnitude since the second quarter of 2002, and still haven't. The markets are now more realistically pricing in risk to the markets, and that is leading to the perception of more volatility."
David Milstead is finance editor of the Rocky Mountain News. He can be reached at milstead@RockyMountainNews.com or 303-954-2648.
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